Every season, around this point, Arsenal fans begin the ritual. The spreadsheet comes out. The permutations get calculated. The words "if we win our remaining games" get typed into a group chat with absolute sincerity. And every season, the numbers have to deliver the bad news.

I've run the model. I've checked it twice. I've run it a third time hoping for a different result, which is, ironically, the same thing Arsenal do every transfer window.

Let's start with the basics. Arsenal's expected points total based on current form projects to 78. To win the title, you historically need 87 or more. That's a nine-point gap that requires Arsenal to play the remaining fixtures at a rate of 2.6 points per game. Their current rate? 2.05. For context, only four teams in Premier League history have sustained 2.6 points per game over an extended run. Arsenal were not one of them.

Now, I can already hear the counterargument: "But Sarah, form is temporary." Correct. But the underlying data isn't much more encouraging. Arsenal's non-penalty expected goals have declined for three consecutive months. Their progressive passing volume is down 12% since January. And most damningly, they're creating 0.4 fewer big chances per game than they were in September.

The eye test says Arsenal are "still in it." The data says Arsenal are on a gentle downward slope that they've decorated with motivational quotes and vibes.

But here's the stat that really stings: set pieces. Arsenal have scored 14 goals from set pieces this season. Impressive, right? Until you realise they've conceded 11 from the same situations. A net gain of 3 goals from set pieces is not a title-winning edge. It's a rounding error.

Gary will tell you the problem is mentality. Terry will tell you the problem is not signing a striker in January. Pete will tell you the problem is "the universe doesn't want it." I'm telling you the problem is xG regression, a midfield that can't sustain creative output over 38 games, and a defensive structure that flatters itself with possession stats while conceding on the counter.

Is the title mathematically possible? Yes. Is it statistically probable? I ran the numbers. You won't like them.

It's 11.3%.

Sleep well, Arsenal fans.